In our latest distillate market commentary:
> E/W coming off on reduced risk premium helping keep EoS barrels in the East
> USGC to Europe arbs slammed shut on spiking TC14 and USGC fob premia, but HOGO may need to widen once TC14 corrects if PADD-3 is to limit exports
> European diesel market looks precarious with pathways to both a rally and a more sustained grind lower clearly possible
> On balance, October and November look to have limited upside potential in the absence of further Middle East escalation, but December onwards can be more constructive
