Q4 ULSD arbs into Europe deeply closed despite low stocks, reduced runs and no clear source of resupply, Q4 E/W too narrow?

In our latest distillate market commentary:

> All arbs into Europe appear closed, with AG & WCI arbs pointing East

> European, US, and Singapore spreads and cracks exhibit huge gains over the past week, largely on the back of bullish fund entries

> Brent futures have risen to their highest level in 3 months as short positions are covered on the back of the extension of OPEC+ cuts

> Europe will at least need to attract some arbs; Q4 E/W appears too narrow currently