In our latest gasoline market commentary:
> TA Arb has widened to allow some RBOB movements come April, but is opening the door to ARA barrels to flow into LatAm and Asian barrels to dominate the west coast of the Americas
> TC2 likely to continue falling to open more exports out of Europe, helped by an influx of MRs currently taking advantage of the open USGC->Europe distillate arb
> E/W has retreated from double-digit territory with fundamentals not yet tight enough to draw EoS barrels into the Atlantic Basin, but that could turn around again later in Q2
> European turnarounds are likely now fully priced in, but unexpected delays and/or further attacks on Russian refining infrastructure could see a rebound in EBOB spreads
> With mogas now leading the refining margin in Europe we can expect supply to remain robust, although an uptick in component pricing has knocked E10 blend margins in April into negative territory once again
> Further closure of USGC export econs are likely necessary in the short term to turnaround the PADD-3 inventories situation before summer tightness starts to bite
