Asian naphtha time spreads correct after Tuapse, Daesan resume operations, making Med-Asia arbs uneconomic; further ARA weakness to widen E/W, while defiant US prices spurn inbound NYH cargoes

In our latest naphtha market commentary:

> Resuming operations, stabilising flows out of Daesan and Tuapse force correction in E/W, Asian naphtha time spreads

> Incremental Med-Asia arbs now uneconomic, but weaker ARA complex amid flagging EBOB could reopen arbs

> Asian propane-naphtha swaps tighten to wintertime levels; we maintain these will widen as Asian PDH margins continue to decline, forcing propane to price itself more competitively relative to MOPJ

> Surplus Med barrels looking for NWE homes face fresh competition from WAF material, meaning Med premia could be subject to further softening

> Resilient US prices, ample PADD 1 stocks shuts down USGC-USAC arb, substantial NYH gasoline upside required for a reopening