In our latest naphtha market commentary:
> Supply fears from Hurricane Beryl and a flurry of fixtures before July 4th holidays have seen freight rates spikes, making several razor thin August arbs unprofitable
> Freight rate correction should occur once traders return to their desks next week and Beryl’s threat to USGC exports and refinery operations fully passes
> Med FOB premia have retreated as we expected as refinery output improves, but heat-related operating rate issues pose upside risk this summer
> In contrast, AG FOBs remain stubbornly strong keeping Asian-bound loadings in the red through mid-Q3
> Recent spate of tenders for light AG material for late July loaders hint at improving supply length, which should soften AG FOB premia
> Rotterdam-NYH August arbs at risk for further narrowing this give unprofitable gasoline arbs, stout PADD 1 gasoline stocks
