In our latest naphtha market commentary:
> Anxieties about tightening naphtha supply ahead of the fall maintenance season has propelled the E/W spread and global cracks sharply higher
> Steepening backwardation at the front of the curve is also reflecting this tightness, despite slackening petchems demand
> Most global arbs are shut as strong Med FOB cash premia trump any gains in sales prices in both East and West of Suez markets
> Hard-up buyers looking for incremental cargoes in Asia will have to up sales premia by around $10/t, given E/W spreads are a touch higher than seasonal averages, capping significant upside
> Hard-up buyers looking for incremental cargoes in Asia will have to up sales premia by around $10/t, given E/W spreads are a touch higher than seasonal averages, capping significant upside
> Limited upside to freight rates could reopen some marginal arbs for heavy materials into NWE
> Marginally open arb USGC-NYH heavy arb in early Q4 likely to fall out of the money, given onset of PADD 1 refinery works
