In our latest naphtha market commentary:
> Near-term naphtha outlook remains bullish on Asian buyers’ resupply concerns as October refinery maintenance looms
> Prompt cracks, E/W spread to remain above historical averages although weakening time spreads are signalling impending softness
> Continued urgency for prompt cargoes, falling freight rates have reopened several eastbound arbs that had been closed for months
> However, AG freight rates should soon rebound given lower-than-average vessel supply, recent spate of fixtures
> Asian forward steam cracker margins are now below breakeven levels through year’s end, which could weaken regional sales prices from mid-Q4
> Worsening European gasoline complex, depressed gas-nap has sent more Med supply looking for homes in the East, which should keep most ARA arbs shut
